Cape Town – South Africa’s preferential access to the lucrative United States market hangs in the balance as Washington prepares to announce its decision on the country’s eligibility for benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for 2027.
The United States is expected to announce the outcome of its annual eligibility review on Monday, 2 November, amid strained diplomatic relations between the two countries and growing uncertainty over the future of their trade relationship.
According to eNCA, AGOA benefits are particularly significant for South Africa’s agricultural sector, supporting exports such as processed fruit, nuts, wine and other commodities.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo believes the country’s citrus and nut industries are relatively resilient, although losing preferential access could undermine their competitiveness in the American market.
Agricultural exports
The review comes as South Africa maintains a trade surplus with the US, with bilateral trade reaching $28.8 billion in 2025. More than 600 American companies also operate in South Africa.
Trade and Industry Minister Parks Tau has expressed confidence that Washington will respond favourably to proposals put forward by Pretoria during negotiations over the past year.
In a statement reported by SAnews, Tau said: “Government has engaged constructively on all concerns raised by the United States.”
He added that South Africa had tabled practical proposals through the appropriate channels but would not disclose their details while negotiations continued.
“If the United States concerns remain, South Africa will have 60 days to address them before any suspension, full or partial, could take effect,” Tau said.
The stakes extend beyond agricultural exports. According to the US Trade Representative, AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products, including manufactured and agricultural goods.
Significant beneficiaries
South Africa is among the programme’s significant beneficiaries, with its exports historically including motor vehicles, automotive components, agricultural products and manufactured goods.
However, the programme’s benefits have already been complicated by additional US tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
In a separate report, eNCA quoted Sihlobo warning that the potential impact of losing AGOA should not be underestimated.
“By saying that this is not catastrophic, it does not mean to minimise the impact it would have on those industries,” he said.
Meanwhile, Business Day reported that South Africa is stepping up efforts to diversify its export markets should Washington decide against retaining the country’s preferential trade access.
Deteriorating diplomatic relations
Tau said government was pursuing opportunities through the African Continental Free Trade Area, the European Union, India, the United Kingdom, the Southern African Development Community and other international markets.
The uncertainty also comes against the backdrop of deteriorating diplomatic relations between Pretoria and Washington, with disagreements over South Africa’s domestic policies and foreign relations contributing to tensions.
According to eNCA, political analyst Brooke Spector believes the outcome of the US midterm elections could create opportunities for Congress to scrutinise the Trump administration’s foreign and economic policies, potentially reopening debate around South Africa’s AGOA membership.
With the eligibility announcement expected on Monday, Pretoria faces a crucial moment in its efforts to preserve access to one of its important export markets while reducing its dependence on preferential trade arrangements.
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
