Johannesburg — South Africa is seeking to expand trade with China and India as deteriorating relations with the United States raise the risk of losing preferential access to the American market, threatening exports and thousands of jobs.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that the country must prepare for possible exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.
“We need to prepare if it ever happens,” Ramaphosa said, according to Reuters, adding that the impact on employment would be “devastating”.
South Africa, one of AGOA’s biggest beneficiaries, exports agricultural products, vehicles and other goods to the United States. Pretoria is exploring alternative markets to reduce its vulnerability to potential trade restrictions while continuing discussions with Washington.
Combined consumer markets
According to Business Insider Africa, the government is targeting the combined consumer markets of China and India, which have a population of approximately 2.8 billion people.
China has already introduced zero-tariff access for qualifying South African goods, creating opportunities for exporters of products such as apples and wine. South Africa is also pursuing a preferential trade agreement with India to improve access to the Asian economy.
The shift comes as China strengthens its position in South Africa’s trade portfolio.
BusinessTech reported on October 13, citing South African Reserve Bank figures, that China had become the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for 28.6% of its trade in 2026, overtaking the euro area.
Domestic industry
However, the growing relationship presents challenges for domestic industry. BusinessTech reported that South Africa imports substantially more manufactured goods from China than it exports, with Chinese products accounting for 35.7% of manufactured imports compared with about 5.9% of manufactured exports.
Meanwhile, Engineering News, reporting on renewed negotiations between India and the Southern African Customs Union in August, said the proposed agreement could improve market access for businesses on both sides.
South Africa’s strategy reflects an effort to diversify its export destinations amid uncertainty over its trade relationship with Washington. However, securing new markets and translating access into increased exports will be crucial if the country is to offset potential losses in the US market.
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
