R56bn fuel shock: South Africa counts cost of Middle East conflict

Fuel

Johannesburg – South Africa has incurred an additional R56.3 billion in fuel import costs since the Middle East conflict erupted in February, highlighting the country’s growing vulnerability to global oil and refined-fuel disruptions.

According to BusinessTech, the figure comes from a study by Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which estimates that South Africa spent an additional $3.5 billion on fossil fuel imports between March and August 2026.

South Africa was the second-largest spender in Africa on additional fuel costs during the crisis, behind Egypt at $5.2 billion and ahead of Morocco at $2.2 billion. The extra expenditure was equivalent to about 0.88% of South Africa’s GDP.

Diesel and gasoil accounted for the largest share of the increase, costing the country an additional $2.1 billion (about R33.9 billion).

The impact has also been felt directly by motorists. BusinessTech reported that petrol prices were about R6.82 per litre higher and diesel about R11.60 higher between March and September compared with pre-war levels. A further increase was projected for October.

The crisis has exposed South Africa’s reliance on imported refined fuel.

Moneyweb reported earlier this year that domestic refining has fallen sharply, with local production now supplying only about 35% of the country’s refined fuel needs, compared with around 80% at its peak.

The country’s exposure to international supply disruptions has been compounded by instability in global energy markets.

This week global fuel markets remained under pressure, with refinery disruptions and supply constraints pushing refined-product prices higher even as crude oil prices have eased from their wartime peaks, Reuters reported.

Aviation fuel supplies 

The disruption has also affected aviation fuel supplies. Reports indicated that that an unplanned stoppage at Sasol’s Natref refinery has limited jet-fuel supplies to OR Tambo International Airport, prompting airlines to implement contingency measures.

Sasol CEO Simon Baloyi warned that low fuel inventories leave the country exposed to unexpected disruptions.

“You can’t run with low inventory. Operational plants are operational plants; they’ll go up, they’ll go down,” Baloyi said.

The government is now considering stronger fuel-stock requirements. BusinessTech reported that the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has proposed reserves equivalent to 60 days of demand, while licensed wholesalers and importers would be required to maintain at least 21 days of stock.

The department has previously said South Africa’s refining capacity provides only around 40% security of supply, with imports increasingly needed to cover domestic demand.

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