Billionaire Dangote’s refinery stake could hit $55bn after earnings surge

Lagos – Nigeria’s billionaire industrialist Aliko Dangote could see his stake in Dangote Petroleum Refinery valued at $55.1 billion following an upward revision by investment firm Renaissance Capital, after the refinery reported stronger-than-expected earnings.

According to Billionaires.Africa, Renaissance Capital raised its estimated value of the refinery to ₦700.41 per share from ₦619.47, a 13.1% increase. The revised valuation is 33.4% above the initial public offering (IPO) price of ₦525 per share.

“The result is an upward revision of DCF value by 13.1% to NGN700.41/share, 33.4% above the NGN525 offer price,” the investment firm said in a note dated October 16, referring to its discounted cash flow valuation model.

Dangote owns 87.27% of the refinery, equivalent to approximately 104.83 billion shares, through several companies and investment vehicles. At the IPO price, his holding is worth about $41.3 billion, but the revised valuation increases it to approximately $55.1 billion.

The assessment follows a significant improvement in the refinery’s financial performance during the first nine months of 2026.

Net debt position 

According to Reuters, the refinery recorded a net profit of $4.73 billion for January to September, compared with a loss of $117.2 million during the same period last year.

Revenue more than doubled to $22.48 billion from $9.19 billion, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased to $5.52 billion from $627.6 million.

The company also moved from a net debt position of $1.73 billion a year earlier to a net cash position of $650.8 million by the end of September.

Chief executive David Bird said the results demonstrated a shift in the company’s operations. “Our third-quarter performance demonstrates the successful transition from commissioning and ramp-up activities to sustainable commercial operations,” he said, according to Reuters.

However, analysts remain divided over the refinery’s valuation. Economy Post reported that Renaissance Capital’s revised assessment reflects stronger earnings and improved refining margins, while GTI Research previously estimated fair value at about ₦493 per share, below the IPO price, citing risks involving crude supply, currency mismatches and the expansion programme.

Broader attention

The refinery is offering 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each to raise approximately $1.62 billion in what is expected to be Nigeria’s largest IPO. According to Reuters, the subscription deadline has been extended to October 27 to give investors more time to participate.

The company currently processes about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily and plans to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day through an expansion programme estimated to cost $14.3 billion.

The valuation upgrade comes as the share sale attracts broader attention across African markets. In a separate Reuters report, Citi’s head of banking for sub-Saharan Africa, Akin Dawodu, said the offering could encourage more people to invest in local stock markets.

“The Dangote Refinery here in Nigeria captured the public imagination in a very real way … You need that,” Dawodu said.

Despite the optimistic valuation, the $55.1 billion figure remains an analyst estimate rather than a realised market value. The refinery’s eventual share price will depend on investor demand, its future financial performance, refining margins, currency movements and its ability to deliver the planned expansion.