Johannesburg – South Africa could be heading for an exceptionally hot period as a strengthening El Niño climate pattern raises the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and drier conditions across parts of the country.
The developing El Niño is expected to influence South Africa’s weather in the months ahead, raising concerns about heat, water availability and agricultural conditions.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned earlier this year that El Niño was likely to develop from mid-2026, with forecasts pointing to a potentially strong event.
The organisation said there was a “high confidence” in its development and warned that El Niño typically has a warming effect on global temperatures.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has similarly forecast a strengthening El Niño through the 2026/27 summer season. Its seasonal outlook says El Niño conditions are typically associated with a “drier and warmer summer season” in South Africa.
The potential heat comes against a backdrop of long-term warming. SAWS data previously showed that 2022 was already South Africa’s fourth-hottest year on record, despite above-normal rainfall.
El Niño could also have consequences beyond temperatures, with drier conditions potentially placing additional pressure on water resources and agriculture. Globally, the WMO has warned that El Niño can disrupt rainfall patterns and increase the risk of extreme weather.
The developing climate pattern is being closely watched as South Africa enters the warmer months, with authorities expected to monitor temperature, rainfall and drought conditions as the event strengthens.
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
