Cape Town – South Africa’s military readiness has come under intense scrutiny, with defence analysts warning that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) may lack the capability to defend the nation against a robust external threat.
According to The Citizen, analysts believe years of diminished funding and skill losses have left the SANDF unable to mount a credible defence against the militaries of major global powers.
Defence analyst Dean Wingrin said that while South Africa currently faces no imminent threat, the country would be “not in a position to fend off any attack” from a well-equipped force, citing substantial losses in capability over past decades.
Wingrin contrasted the SANDF with superpower militaries, noting that major forces like the United States possess advanced aircraft carriers, long-range missiles, and strategic bombers capable of operating far from home.
Critics say the decline of the SANDF is not a recent phenomenon but the result of long-term neglect.
According to EWN, chronic budget constraints have severely reduced defence capacity over the years, leaving key elements of the force — such as the Air Force’s Gripen fighter aircraft and the Navy’s frigates and submarines — either outdated or difficult to maintain.
Defence expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman echoed concerns about South Africa’s limited deterrent capability, but added that even modest elements, like a functioning submarine fleet, could still play a deterrent role if properly maintained and upgraded.
“A small submarine force of about six vessels would not deter a major power… but could precipitate a careful risk and benefit analysis,” Heitman said.
The warnings come amid broader debate on national security.
In 2023, Heitman told News24 that without adequate funding to maintain equipment and train personnel, “if any big player came to attack us, we would not be able to do anything.”
The Democratic Alliance (DA) has criticised the government’s failure to implement a long-overdue defence review, calling for urgent reforms. The party argues that policy paralysis and weak leadership continue to undermine military effectiveness.
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Compiled by Lisabeal Nqamqhele
