Winter miracle? – Eskom vows no loadshedding unless grid crashes

Dan Marokane

Johannesburg – Eskom says South Africans can expect a more stable power supply this winter, with minimal to no loadshedding projected, thanks to a marked improvement in the reliability and performance of the national grid.

In its Winter 2025 outlook released on Monday, Eskom said loadshedding is not expected unless unplanned outages exceed 13GW. Even in a worst-case scenario where outages rise to 15GW, Eskom anticipates only up to 21 days of Stage 2 loadshedding over the 153-day winter period — a significant improvement compared to last year’s forecast of potential Stage 5 outages.

“This year’s Winter Outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency,” said Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane.

“Loadshedding was the lowest in Eskom’s last Financial Year (FY2025) than in the previous two years. We delivered power 96% of the time — a major leap from 9.9% in the previous year.”

According to Eskom, the improved outlook is underpinned by a 3.1GW year-on-year decrease in unplanned outages, with the average dropping from 18GW in May 2023 to 13.5GW by April 2025. Planned maintenance also increased, reaching 12.8% of total capacity — up from 12% the year before.

The power utility also reported a 6.5% year-on-year improvement in plant availability, now at 61%. Diesel usage — often a fallback during power shortfalls — was halved in FY2025, saving Eskom approximately R16.5 billion.

Other key developments include:

  • The return to service of Kusile Units 2 and 3, now operating with flue gas desulphurisation systems.

  • Continued progress on the return of Kusile Unit 6 and Medupi Unit 4, expected to add a combined 1,600MW by September 2025.

  • Successful recommissioning of Koeberg Unit 2, contributing over 900MW since December 2024.

  • Installation of 880,000 smart meters, enabling better demand management and support for small-scale clean energy producers.

Despite recent setbacks between January and April 2025, where loadshedding briefly returned, Marokane said a “targeted plan” is underway to reinforce operational discipline and address root causes. Eskom also recorded a 3.6% growth in electricity sales, indicating improved generation stability and reduced reliance on diesel-powered turbines.

Eskom Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said the power utility is evolving its Generation Recovery Plan to focus on managing delays in returning units from maintenance.

“We are using a data-led approach to understand these delays and to support our teams to address the bottlenecks,” Nxumalo said.

Looking ahead, Eskom aims to add 5.9GW of clean energy capacity by 2030 as part of South Africa’s broader energy transition. It is also moving forward with the legal separation of its Distribution and Generation divisions and continues to explore strategic partnerships for investment and execution.

Eskom extended its appreciation to the government, particularly the National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM), for its support, and credited its employees for their “diligent execution” of the recovery plan.

“Eskom produced more energy in FY2025 than in the previous two years,” Marokane noted.

“We remain focused on building a reliable, sustainable power system for South Africa’s future.”

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