Cape Town – Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that South African fuel prices for March 2026 are on the verge of an over-or under-recovery.
After two months of cuts in January and February, petrol and diesel are showing negative recoveries: petrol underrecovery is small, while diesel underrecovery is steep (around 46 cents per litre).
Projected mid-month changes:
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Petrol 93: +1 cent/litre
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Petrol 95: +2 cents/litre
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Diesel 0.05% wholesale: +45 cents/litre
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Diesel 0.005% wholesale: +47 cents/litre
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Illuminating paraffin: +23 cents/litre
Fuel prices may still change before the final announcement by the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, which comes a few days before implementation.
Key Influences:
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Rand: Its relative strength against the dollar is softening underrecoveries by 16–19 cents/litre.
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Global oil prices: Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the US, Venezuela, and Iran, pushed oil prices above $70/barrel, after starting the year below $58. If tensions ease, oil could drop below $60, potentially lowering fuel prices.
Expected pump prices (inland vs. coastal) for March 2026:
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93 Petrol: R20.00 (inland) / R19.21 (coastal)
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95 Petrol: R20.12 / R19.29
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Diesel 0.05% wholesale: R18.36 / R17.53
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Diesel 0.005% wholesale: R18.42 / R17.66
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Paraffin: R12.33 / R11.31
In short, March fuel prices will likely see small increases, but global oil trends and the rand could still tip the scales.
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
