Africa’s mineral goldmine: Experts say global chaos could spark boom

Cape Town – Africa’s vast mineral wealth could position the continent as a key beneficiary of global geopolitical instability, despite rising protectionism and trade barriers, industry leaders heard at the Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town.

The issue took centre stage during a main platform debate on Tuesday, where mining executives and policy experts discussed whether Africa stands to gain from shifting global power dynamics driven by competition for critical minerals.

The session, moderated by International Council on Mining and Metals president and CEO Rohitesh Dhawan, examined the question: “Is Africa a winner in the current geopolitical disruption?”

While participants differed on Africa’s readiness to seize emerging opportunities, there was broad agreement that the continent’s mineral resources place it in a strong strategic position.

Signal Risk director Ronak Gopaldas cautioned against overconfidence, warning that Africa risks being sidelined in global power struggles.

“Hope is not a strategy,” Gopaldas said. “Africa has aspirations to be a winner, but in reality, the continent is more vulnerable than a certain CEO at a Coldplay concert.”

‘We can’t just be ‘living on a prayer’

He argued that global politics is increasingly defined by influence and economic power, saying, “In that environment, we Africans will be rule takers rather than rule makers.”

“We can’t just be ‘living on a prayer’. Without collective bargaining and regional solidarity, we’ll be going backwards,” he added.

Offering a more optimistic perspective, Kumba Iron Ore CEO Mpumi Zikalala highlighted Africa’s dominance in critical mineral reserves.

“Africa has an endowment that everybody wants a piece of,” Zikalala said. “We have around 40% of the world’s proven critical-mineral reserves in the ground beneath our feet. You can’t argue with that. The world is beating a path to our door, and we just need to negotiate deals that work for us.”

Zikalala also emphasised the continent’s youthful population as a major development advantage.

“Our young people will allow us to unlock the possibilities for the future,” she said. “There will be long-term demand for critical minerals. And young people can be trained to deliver on that demand.”

‘All three G’s have to be in place’

However, experts warned that mineral wealth alone would not guarantee success. Gracelin Baskaran, director of critical minerals security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stressed the importance of strong governance frameworks.

“All three G’s have to be in place,” Baskaran said. “It’s not just about the geopolitical conditions, or the geological endowment. You need to get governance right.”

She noted that some African regions have seen declining global exploration interest due to resource nationalism, double taxation and perceptions of instability.

Baskaran also called for greater regional integration to improve industrial efficiency.

“Everyone talks about local beneficiation,” she said. “But not every country can build a refinery. It makes more sense to build one refinery to serve a broader region. Policy alignment makes that possible – and Africa needs to work on that.”

TechMet chairman and CEO Brian Menell compared current global tensions to a modern Cold War driven by competition for mineral resources.

“The key front these days is the control of resources,” Menell said. “The world needs more of what we’ve got – for energy transition, robotics, drones, autonomous driving. It also needs a young and resilient population, and we will therefore be winners.”

‘Africa can be a winner’

Menell said growing international investment commitments would strengthen Africa’s position in global supply chains.

“Fundamentally, it’s about investment and returns,” he said. “The US, Europe, Japan and other investors have committed to providing capital, derisking investments and transforming global supply chains. Without a shadow of a doubt, that assures Africa’s position as a winner.”

Baskaran agreed that Africa’s prospects remain strong, provided policy frameworks improve.

“Africa can be a winner,” she said. “So long as we build policy coherence.”

Summing up the debate, Dhawan said geopolitical uncertainty does not diminish Africa’s potential.

“We’ve spiced things up for entertainment value, but at the end of the day, even in times of geopolitical turmoil, there remain exciting opportunities for Africa,” he said.

The Investing in African Mining Indaba 2026 is being held at the Cape Town International Convention Centre from 9 to 12 February.