97% power punch – Eskom stuns doubters

Eskom

Johannesburg – South Africa’s power system has remained stable through the winter period, with Eskom meeting electricity demand 97% of the time and recording just 26 hours of loadshedding since April, the utility announced on Friday.

Eskom said it has not implemented loadshedding since 15 May, crediting improved plant performance under its Generation Recovery Plan and the strategic use of emergency reserves during morning and evening peak periods.

The available generation capacity stands at 30 480MW, against a projected demand of 27 969MW for Friday evening, leaving sufficient margin to cover weekend requirements. In addition, Eskom plans to return 4 151MW of generation capacity to service by Monday evening’s peak on 18 August, further bolstering grid stability.

Unplanned outages currently total 10 538MW, below the 13 000MW threshold in Eskom’s Winter Outlook, which forecast no loadshedding if breakdowns remained at that level. Should unplanned outages rise to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to Stage 2 and no more than 21 days over the winter period.

The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) – a key measure of fleet performance – averaged between 61% and 66% during the week of 8 to 14 August, with a month-to-date average of 64.65%.

Excluding Kusile Unit 6, which has been supplying 720MW since March but is not yet in commercial operation, the year-to-date EAF is 60.3%. This remains below the 63.15% recorded during the same period last year, mainly due to increased unplanned maintenance.

Eskom also reported reduced reliance on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). Their load factor fell to 1.21% this week from 5.99% the previous week. Year-to-date diesel expenditure stands at R5.887 billion, within budget allocations.

Planned maintenance averaged 5 193MW last week, in line with Eskom’s efforts to improve long-term reliability. The utility said unplanned capability loss has declined slightly week-on-week, standing at 28.14%.

Eskom urged customers to avoid illegal connections and meter bypassing, warning that these practices risk damaging transformers and could force the utility to implement load reduction in high-risk areas. Households were also encouraged to register for free basic electricity with their municipalities.

The Winter Outlook, published in May, runs until 31 August. Eskom is scheduled to release its Summer Outlook in September. The next system update will be issued on 22 August, unless significant changes occur earlier.

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