Cape Town – South African motorists could face a sharp increase in fuel prices in September after the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data showed that recent improvements in fuel price recoveries have almost completely reversed.
The latest figures indicate that petrol and diesel prices are currently showing significant under-recoveries, raising the prospect of another substantial increase when fuel prices are adjusted at the beginning of September.
According to CEF, petrol started August with an under-recovery of about R1 per litre. By the middle of the month, that figure had improved to roughly 65 cents per litre.
However, the latest CEF data shows the under-recovery has climbed back to about 94 cents per litre.
Diesel has seen an even sharper deterioration.
The under-recovery for diesel stood at around R5 per litre at the beginning of August before improving to approximately R2.80 per litre midway through the month. It has since increased again to about R3 per litre.
At the end of the third week of August, the CEF’s data indicated the following potential increases:
- 93 unleaded petrol: R0.83 per litre
- 95 unleaded petrol: R0.94 per litre
- 0.05% sulphur diesel: R2.87 per litre
- 0.005% sulphur diesel: R3.07 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: R2.24 per litre
These figures are not yet the final September fuel price increases.
The CEF’s daily data tracks the factors that influence the monthly fuel price, including international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. The figures can therefore move significantly before the government announces the official September prices.
If the current trends persist, motorists could face a significant increase in the cost of filling up their vehicles next month.
@dylanleroux_news Petrol and diesel prices predicted to rise in south africa in September #southafricannews #onlyinsouthafrica #petrolprice #dieselprice #sanews ♬ original sound – Dylan Le Roux
For example, a driver filling a 50-litre petrol tank would pay roughly R41.50 more for 93 petrol or R47 more for 95 petrol if the current under-recoveries were reflected in the final price.
Diesel drivers could face an even larger increase. A 50-litre tank would cost about R143.50 more for 0.05% sulphur diesel and roughly R153.50 more for 0.005% sulphur diesel, based on the current CEF figures.
The impact would extend beyond motorists.
Higher fuel prices generally increase transportation costs, which can put pressure on the prices of goods and services. Businesses that rely heavily on vehicles and logistics could face higher operating costs, while commuters could also feel the impact through transport costs.
According to Business Insider, the deterioration in the fuel price outlook is linked to developments in the Middle East and the impact of the conflict involving the United States and Iran on global oil markets.
South Africa imports most of its crude oil, meaning international oil prices can have a significant impact on domestic fuel prices.
The rand’s performance against the US dollar is another important factor, as oil is traded internationally in dollars.
The latest CEF figures therefore point to a potentially painful September for South African motorists, although the final increases will only be known once the month’s fuel-price calculations are completed.
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Compiled by Glaan Sibuyi
