With the semi-finals set, France have emerged as clear favourites, while Argentina, the reigning champions, find themselves rated the least likely to go all the way.
Opta’s supercomputer has run the numbers on the World Cup’s final four, and France come out as clear favourites to lift the trophy.
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The model gives France a 34 percent chance of winning the tournament outright, along with a 57.7 percent chance of reaching Sunday’s final, the highest of any side left in the competition.
Spain are rated as the second most likely champions at 23.4 percent, despite a slightly lower 42.3 percent chance of reaching the final than England, whose semi-final opponents Argentina complete the four way picture.
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England are given a 50.9 percent chance of reaching the final and a 21.9 percent chance of winning it all, while Argentina, chasing back to back titles, sit fourth on the list, with a 49.1 percent chance of a final appearance and a 20.6 percent chance of winning the tournament.
We are down to the final four at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
According to the Opta supercomputer, the likeliest final will be between France and England, while our latest projections suggest Les Bleus are favourites to win the whole thing. pic.twitter.com/WePRjko0nQ
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 12, 2026
The numbers suggest a genuinely open final four, with fewer than 14 percentage points separating the most and least fancied side to lift the trophy. France’s status as favourites lines up with the eye test too, having posted the most emphatic attacking numbers of any team at this World Cup, while Spain’s defensive record offers a compelling case for the value in de la Fuente’s side defying the odds.
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Whichever combination of results plays out over the coming days, Opta’s model suggests this is shaping up to be one of the most competitive World Cup semi-final rounds in recent memory.
Picture: Facebook/Fabrizio Romano
