Cape Town – South African motorists are expected to face another sharp fuel price increase in May 2026, with early data suggesting even steeper hikes than those recorded in April, as global oil markets remain volatile and geopolitical tensions intensify.
According to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), fuel prices are under pressure from rising international oil costs and a weaker rand, largely driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to diesel increases of more than R10 per litre, in addition to April’s already steep hikes of between R7.37 and R7.51 per litre.
Petrol is expected to rise by around R3 per litre, although analysts note that daily fluctuations could still reduce or worsen the final outcome before month-end.
Threats and diplomatic tensions
Brent crude oil has climbed to around $111 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous pricing period, as markets react to instability linked to threats and diplomatic tensions involving Iran and the United States over the strategic Strait of Hormuz oil route.
The CEF’s latest snapshot shows that while early under-recoveries suggested increases of up to R4.70 per litre for petrol, more recent data indicates some moderation, though diesel remains the most severely impacted fuel category due to global supply pressures.
Following April’s increases, petrol 95 currently costs R22.53 at the coast and R23.36 inland, while diesel prices range between R25.35 and R26.11 depending on grade and region.
Economists warn that continued volatility in oil prices, combined with a weaker rand, could further worsen the outlook, with additional pressure possibly coming from mechanisms such as the Slate Levy, which balances under- and over-recoveries in fuel pricing.
Final fuel price adjustments for May will be confirmed later in the month, with new prices expected to take effect on 5 May 2026.
