Cape Town – The escalating war in the Middle East could push South Africa’s petrol price up by between R4 and R6 a litre, with experts warning that a prolonged conflict could also lead to fuel shortages in the country.
Much of South Africa’s fuel is imported from the Gulf region, leaving supplies vulnerable as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows amid tensions involving Iran.
According to The Citizen, Democratic Alliance spokesperson James Lorimer warned that if disruptions continue for weeks, supply risks could grow, especially as South Africa now has reduced refining capacity and smaller fuel reserves than in the past.
While Sasol, which supplies about 39% of South Africa’s fuel, says it is continuing operations as normal, analysts believe motorists are more likely to feel the impact through sharp price increases.
Economist Dawie Roodt warned that rising fuel, diesel and fertiliser costs could push inflation higher, drive up interest rates and slow economic growth if the conflict drags on.
“Here’s trouble on several levels. The petrol prices are going to increase, but also the diesel and fertiliser prices, and by a lot,” the report quoted him as saying.
“That means higher inflation, which means higher interest rates and everything that goes with that. It also means poor economic growth, the interest rates and everything that goes with that.”
Meanwhile, according to AFP, global markets have swung wildly as the conflict enters a second week.
Oil prices plunged about 10% on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump said the US-Israel war against Iran could end sooner than expected.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told CBS News, adding that the conflict was progressing much faster than the initially predicted four to five weeks.
“If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense,” he added.
Big news looks like Israel won’t even last 12 days at this time war 😭🤣😂
Trump tells CBS that Iran ‘war is very complete’
CNBC news pic.twitter.com/Hshm3tgKCE
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 9, 2026
The remarks helped send Brent crude down to about $88.95 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate to $85.29, after prices had earlier surged as high as $119 per barrel during intense market volatility.
Despite the price drop, uncertainty remains high as the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of global oil supplies pass — remains largely blocked, with several vessels reportedly attacked since Iran moved to restrict tanker traffic.
Analysts warn that while markets briefly rallied on hopes of a quicker end to the war, continued disruption in the Gulf could still pose serious risks to global oil supplies — and to fuel prices in import-dependent countries such as South Africa.
Key figures at around 0230 GMT
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 10.0 percent at $85.29 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 10.1 percent at $88.95 per barrel
Seoul – Kospi: UP 6.2 percent at 5,575.62
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 3.2 percent at 54,399.08 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.5 percent at 25,777.49
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 4,115.78
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1623 from $1.1614 on Monday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3435 from $1.3427
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.65 yen from 157.85 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.51 pence from 86.49 pence
New York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 47,740.80 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 10,249.52 (close)
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
